Emissions of carbon dioxide from combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period 1950 - 1990. We employ a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find an "inverse-U"relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per captia income. Using the income and population growth assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we obtain projections significantly and substantially above those of the IPCC.

© 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology