The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM

Joint Program Reprint • Journal Article
The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM
Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R.G. Prinn (2006)
Energy Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy, Special Issue #3, pp. 503-520

Reprint 2006-10 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

First steps toward a broad climate agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on less than global geographic coverage. We consider instead a policy that is less comprehensive in term of greenhouse gases (GHGs), including only the non-CO2 GHGs, but is geographically comprehensive. Abating non-CO2 GHGs may be seen as less of a threat to economic development and therefore it may be possible to involve developing countries in such a policy even though they have resisted limits on CO2 emissions. The policy we consider involves a GHG price of about $15 per ton carbon-equivalent (tce) levied only on the non-CO2 GHGs and held at that level through the century. We estimate that such a policy would reduce the global mean surface temperature in 2100 by about 0.55 °C if only methane is covered that alone would achieve a reduction of 0.3 to 0.4°C. We estimate the Kyoto Protocol in its current form would achieve a 0.25°C reduction in 2100 if Parties to it maintained it as is through the century. Furthermore, we estimate the costs of the non-CO2 policies to be a small fraction of the Kyoto policy. Whether as a next step to expand the Kyoto Protocol, or as a separate initiative running parallel to it, the world could well make substantial progress on limiting climate change by pursuing an agreement to abate the low cost non-CO2 GHGs. The results suggest that it would be useful to proceed on global abatement of non-CO2 GHGs so that lack of progress on negotiations to limit CO2 does not allow these abatement opportunities to slip away. © 2006 IAEE

Citation:

Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R.G. Prinn (2006): The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM. Energy Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy, Special Issue #3, pp. 503-520 (http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/journal.aspx)
  • Joint Program Reprint
  • Journal Article
The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM

Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R.G. Prinn

2006-10
Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy, Special Issue #3, pp. 503-520

Abstract/Summary: 

First steps toward a broad climate agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on less than global geographic coverage. We consider instead a policy that is less comprehensive in term of greenhouse gases (GHGs), including only the non-CO2 GHGs, but is geographically comprehensive. Abating non-CO2 GHGs may be seen as less of a threat to economic development and therefore it may be possible to involve developing countries in such a policy even though they have resisted limits on CO2 emissions. The policy we consider involves a GHG price of about $15 per ton carbon-equivalent (tce) levied only on the non-CO2 GHGs and held at that level through the century. We estimate that such a policy would reduce the global mean surface temperature in 2100 by about 0.55 °C if only methane is covered that alone would achieve a reduction of 0.3 to 0.4°C. We estimate the Kyoto Protocol in its current form would achieve a 0.25°C reduction in 2100 if Parties to it maintained it as is through the century. Furthermore, we estimate the costs of the non-CO2 policies to be a small fraction of the Kyoto policy. Whether as a next step to expand the Kyoto Protocol, or as a separate initiative running parallel to it, the world could well make substantial progress on limiting climate change by pursuing an agreement to abate the low cost non-CO2 GHGs. The results suggest that it would be useful to proceed on global abatement of non-CO2 GHGs so that lack of progress on negotiations to limit CO2 does not allow these abatement opportunities to slip away. © 2006 IAEE

Supersedes: 

The Role of Non-CO2 GHGs in Climate Policy: Analysis Using the MIT IGSM