The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM

Conference Proceedings Paper
The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM
Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R. Prinn (2005)
Conference Proceedings, Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Second Workshop (Honolulu, Hawaii, 4-6 April)

Abstract/Summary:

A CGE model is used in an integrated modeling framework to examine the economic and climate impacts of various low cost ($15/ton carbon equivalent) non-CO2 GHG policies. We estimate that global mean surface temperature in 2100 could be decreased by 0.57 degrees C with a non-CO2 policy, of which more than half the reduction is due to methane alone. In comparison, Kyoto maintained in its current form for the remainder of the century would yield only 0.30 degrees C temperature reduction, with a significantly higher cost (as measured by net present value of consumption over the century). A further benefit of methane reduction is a 5% decrease in global mean tropospheric ozone concentrations.

Citation:

Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R. Prinn (2005): The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM. Conference Proceedings, Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Second Workshop (Honolulu, Hawaii, 4-6 April) (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/meetings/pollution2005/)
  • Conference Proceedings Paper
The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Policy: Analysis using the MIT IGSM

Reilly, J., M. Sarofim, S. Paltsev and R. Prinn

Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Second Workshop (Honolulu, Hawaii, 4-6 April)

Abstract/Summary: 

A CGE model is used in an integrated modeling framework to examine the economic and climate impacts of various low cost ($15/ton carbon equivalent) non-CO2 GHG policies. We estimate that global mean surface temperature in 2100 could be decreased by 0.57 degrees C with a non-CO2 policy, of which more than half the reduction is due to methane alone. In comparison, Kyoto maintained in its current form for the remainder of the century would yield only 0.30 degrees C temperature reduction, with a significantly higher cost (as measured by net present value of consumption over the century). A further benefit of methane reduction is a 5% decrease in global mean tropospheric ozone concentrations.