Methane Fluxes Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere at Northern High Latitudes During the Past Century: A Retrospective Analysis with a Process-based Biogeochemistry Model

Joint Program Report
Methane Fluxes Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere at Northern High Latitudes During the Past Century: A Retrospective Analysis with a Process-based Biogeochemistry Model
Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, D.A. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer and S. Hu (2004)
Joint Program Report Series, 31 pages

Report 108 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the 20th century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr-1. Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere; responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large inter-annual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. If CH4 emissions from the soils of the pan-Arctic region respond to future climate changes as our simulations suggest they have responded to observed climate changes over the 20th century, a large increase in high latitude CH4 emissions is likely and could lead to a major positive feedback to the climate system.

Citation:

Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, D.A. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer and S. Hu (2004): Methane Fluxes Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere at Northern High Latitudes During the Past Century: A Retrospective Analysis with a Process-based Biogeochemistry Model. Joint Program Report Series Report 108, 31 pages (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/14199)

Superseded by:

Reprint 2004-9. Methane fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere at northern high latitudes during the past century: A retrospective analysis with a process-based biogeochemistry model (Global Biochemical Cycles, 2004)
  • Joint Program Report
Methane Fluxes Between Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Atmosphere at Northern High Latitudes During the Past Century: A Retrospective Analysis with a Process-based Biogeochemistry Model

Zhuang, Q., J.M. Melillo, D.W. Kicklighter, R.G. Prinn, D.A. McGuire, P.A. Steudler, B.S. Felzer and S. Hu

Joint Program Report Series

Report 

108
31 pages
2004

Abstract/Summary: 

We develop and use a new version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to study how rates of methane (CH4) emissions and consumption in high-latitude soils of the Northern Hemisphere have changed over the past century in response to observed changes in the region's climate. We estimate that the net emissions of CH4 (emissions minus consumption) from these soils have increased by an average 0.08 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the 20th century. Our estimate of the annual net emission rate at the end of the century for the region is 51 Tg CH4 yr-1. Russia, Canada, and Alaska are the major CH4 regional sources to the atmosphere; responsible for 64%, 11%, and 7% of these net emissions, respectively. Our simulations indicate that large inter-annual variability in net CH4 emissions occurred over the last century. If CH4 emissions from the soils of the pan-Arctic region respond to future climate changes as our simulations suggest they have responded to observed climate changes over the 20th century, a large increase in high latitude CH4 emissions is likely and could lead to a major positive feedback to the climate system.

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