The determination of long-term goals for climate policy, or of near-term mitigation effort, requires a shared conception among nations of what is at stake. Unfortunately, because of different attitudes to risk, problems of valuing non-market effects, and disagreements about aggregation across rich and poor nations, no single benefit measure is possible that can provide commonly accepted basis for judgment. In response to this circumstance, a portfolio of estimates is recommended, including global variables that can be represented in probabilistic terms, regional impacts expressed in natural units, and integrated monetary valuation. Development of such a portfolio is a research task, and the needed program of work suggested.

© 2004 Elsevier Ltd