- Conference Proceedings Paper
We use the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), which couples a global climate/chemistry model, a Global Land System for terrestrial hydrology and ecology, and the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. EPPA is a global, applied general equilibrium model of economic growth, international trade, and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CO, CH4, SO2, NOx, N2O, NH3, CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, SF6) from a set of trade-linked economic regions. Holistically, the IGSM is used to analyze the processes that produce greenhouse-relevant emissions, and to assess the climate and economic consequences of policy proposals intended to control these emissions. In conjunction with the recent CCSP exercise, a suite of emission/stabilization scenarios (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm, and BAU) generated by EPPA has been employed. For each of these emission scenarios, we perform a 400-member ensemble simulation with the IGSM, which samples combinations of plausible states of climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake, precipitation frequency change, and ecosystem fertilization effect. We present results (mainly via PDF analyses) that quantify the range of response of various climate, hydrologic, ecologic and socio-economic sectors, and how various climate policies affect these trajectories.