We use an economy-wide model to estimate the impact of a representative climate policy on fuel prices and economic activity, and a partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry to estimate changes in aviation carbon dioxide emissions and operations. Between 2012 and 2050, with reference demand growth benchmarked to ICAO/GIACC (2009) forecasts, we find that aviation emissions increase by 130 per cent. In our policy scenarios, emissions increase by between 103 per cent and 123 per cent. Under the assumptions in our analysis, aviation contributes to climate policy targets by funding emissions reductions in sectors with less costly abatement options.

© 2013 Journal of Transport Economics and Policy