Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil

Conference Proceedings Paper
Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil
Gurgel, A. and S. Paltsev (2012)
Conference Proceedings, Global Trade Analysis Project 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Geneva, Switzerland, June 27-29)

Abstract/Summary:

The Brazilian government has announced volunteer targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the 2009 COP meeting in Copenhagen and reassured them in Cancun (2010) and Durban (2011). In this paper we estimate the economic impacts from alternative policies to achieve such targets, including actions to cut emissions from deforestation and agricultural production. We employ a dynamic-recursive general equilibrium model of the world economy. The main results show that deforestation emissions in Brazil can be reduced at very low costs, but the costs of cutting emissions from agricultural and energy use may reach 2.3% loss in GDP by 2020 if sector specific carbon taxes are applied. Those costs may be reduced to 1.5% under a carbon trading scheme. The negative impacts of carbon taxes on agricultural production indirectly reduce deforestation rates. However, directly cutting emissions from deforestation is the most cost-effective option, since it does not negatively affect agricultural production, which still expands on lower yield and underutilized pasture and secondary forest areas.

Citation:

Gurgel, A. and S. Paltsev (2012): Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil. Conference Proceedings, Global Trade Analysis Project 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Geneva, Switzerland, June 27-29) (https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/events/conferences/2012/default.asp)
  • Conference Proceedings Paper
Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil

Gurgel, A. and S. Paltsev

Global Trade Analysis Project 15th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis (Geneva, Switzerland, June 27-29)

Abstract/Summary: 

The Brazilian government has announced volunteer targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during the 2009 COP meeting in Copenhagen and reassured them in Cancun (2010) and Durban (2011). In this paper we estimate the economic impacts from alternative policies to achieve such targets, including actions to cut emissions from deforestation and agricultural production. We employ a dynamic-recursive general equilibrium model of the world economy. The main results show that deforestation emissions in Brazil can be reduced at very low costs, but the costs of cutting emissions from agricultural and energy use may reach 2.3% loss in GDP by 2020 if sector specific carbon taxes are applied. Those costs may be reduced to 1.5% under a carbon trading scheme. The negative impacts of carbon taxes on agricultural production indirectly reduce deforestation rates. However, directly cutting emissions from deforestation is the most cost-effective option, since it does not negatively affect agricultural production, which still expands on lower yield and underutilized pasture and secondary forest areas.