A Comparison of the Behavior of Different AOGCMs in Transient Climate Change Experiments

Joint Program Report
A Comparison of the Behavior of Different AOGCMs in Transient Climate Change Experiments
Sokolov, A.P., C.E. Forest and P.H. Stone (2001)
Joint Program Report Series, 14 pages

Report 81 [Download]

Abstract/Summary:

The transient response of both surface air temperature and deep ocean temperature to an increasing external forcing strongly depends on climate sensitivity and the rate of the heat mixing into the deep ocean, estimates for both of which have large uncertainty. In this paper we describe a method for estimating rates of oceanic heat uptake for coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models from results of transient climate change simulations. For models considered in this study, the estimates vary more than threefold. Nevertheless, values for all models fall in the 5-95% interval of the range implied by the climate record for the last century. The MIT 2D climate model, with an appropriate choice of parameters, matches changes in surface air temperature and sea level rise simulated by different models. It also reproduces the overall range of changes in precipitation.

Citation:

Sokolov, A.P., C.E. Forest and P.H. Stone (2001): A Comparison of the Behavior of Different AOGCMs in Transient Climate Change Experiments. Joint Program Report Series Report 81, 14 pages (http://globalchange.mit.edu/publication/15525)
  • Joint Program Report
A Comparison of the Behavior of Different AOGCMs in Transient Climate Change Experiments

Sokolov, A.P., C.E. Forest and P.H. Stone

Report 

81
14 pages
2016

Abstract/Summary: 

The transient response of both surface air temperature and deep ocean temperature to an increasing external forcing strongly depends on climate sensitivity and the rate of the heat mixing into the deep ocean, estimates for both of which have large uncertainty. In this paper we describe a method for estimating rates of oceanic heat uptake for coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation models from results of transient climate change simulations. For models considered in this study, the estimates vary more than threefold. Nevertheless, values for all models fall in the 5-95% interval of the range implied by the climate record for the last century. The MIT 2D climate model, with an appropriate choice of parameters, matches changes in surface air temperature and sea level rise simulated by different models. It also reproduces the overall range of changes in precipitation.