An M.I.T. Plan for Natural Gas With Planet in Mind

By ANDREW C. REVKIN

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has released “The Future of Natural Gas,” the latest in its valuable series of reports examining global energy choices. The report lays out a path for exploiting this abundant and relatively clean source of energy in ways that could limit environmental concerns and give the biggest near-term boost to efforts to trim emissions of carbon dioxide.

One of the most important take-home points, to me, was the authors’ endorsement of a rising role for natural gas as a feedstock for producing liquid transportation fuels. This resonated with discussions I had earlier this month with some senior people at Shell. They spoke at length about Shell’s existing push to produce liquid fuels from gas, most notably at the huge new gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar:

Here are a few highlights from the new report, starting with the M.I.T. team’s conclusion on hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking“:

The environmental impacts of shale development are challenging but manageable. Research and regulation, both state and federal, are needed to minimize the environmental consequences.

On gas as a substitute for coal:

…In the U.S. electricity supply sector, the cost benchmark for reducing carbon dioxide emissions lies with substitution of natural gas for coal, especially older, less efficient units. Substitution through increased utilization of existing combined cycle natural gas power plants provides a relatively low-cost, short-term opportunity to reduce U.S. power sector carbon dioxide emissions by up to 20 percent, while also reducing emissions of criteria pollutants and mercury.

On gas to provide a flexible source of “fill in” power to complement expanded use of variable wind power:

Furthermore, additional gas-fired capacity will be needed as backup if variable and intermittent renewables, especially wind, are introduced on a large scale. Policy and regulatory steps are needed to facilitate adequate capacity investment for system reliability and efficiency. These increasingly important roles for natural gas in the electricity sector call for a detailed analysis of the interdependencies of the natural gas and power generation infrastructures.

Finally, on gas’s potential as a transportation fuel and a substitute for liquid fuels:

Over the last decade or so, when oil prices have been high, the ratio of the oil price to the natural gas price has been consistently higher than any of the standard rules of thumb. If this trend is robust, use of natural gas in transportation, either through direct use or following conversion to a liquid fuel, could in time increase appreciably.

The evolution of global gas markets is unclear. A global “liquid” natural gas market is beneficial to U.S. and global economic interests and, at the same time, advances security interests through diversity of supply and resilience to disruption. The U.S. should pursue policies that encourage the development of such a market, integrate energy issues fully into the conduct of U.S. foreign policy and promote sharing of know-how for strategic global expansion of unconventional gas production.

Date: 

Thursday, June 9, 2011