- Conference Proceedings Paper
Abstract/Summary:
Forest et al. (2002) have presented joint probability density functions (pdfs) for three climate system properties (climate sensitivity (CS) to a doubling of CO2 concentration, effective deep-ocean vertical thermal diffusivity (KV), and the net aerosol forcing (FA)) based on simulations with the MIT 2DLO model. The effective vertical diffusivities used in this model were based on observations of tritium mixing into the deep ocean. As was recently shown by Sun & Hansen (2003, J. Climate), the changes in ocean heat content with depth for the 1951-1998 period differ from the mixing implied by the tritium distribution. The ocean heat content changes show stronger uptake in the tropical and mid-latitude regions as compared to high latitude regions. The goal of this study is to evaluate the sensitivity of temperature change diagnostics used in Forest et al. (2002) to different assumptions regarding the latitudinal distribution of deep-ocean heat uptake. We carried out a number of simulations with the MIT 2DLO model for the 1860-1995 period with a latitudinal profile of the effective vertical diffusion coefficients derived from the Levitus data for ocean heat content changes. The changes in global-mean sea surface air temperature are mainly defined by the global mean value of the effective diffusivities and are not sensitive to the latitudinal dependence. For simulations with CS= 4.0K, KV = 9.0 cm$^2$/s, and FA = -0.5 W/m$^2$, the main effects are seen in the tropical regions where enhanced deep-ocean mixing reduces the surface warming. We will show results of the dependence of the surface, upper-air, and deep ocean temperature diagnostics on CS and FA and discuss the implications for the estimation of the pdfs for the model parameter space: (CS,KV,FA).