Mark Dwortzan | MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
On July 6, MIT Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev was a keynote speaker at the International Conference on Economic Modeling, EcoMod 2016, in Lisbon, Portugal. EcoMod is the world’s leading research, advisory and educational nonprofit network focused on promoting advanced modeling and statistical techniques in economic policy and decision-making. The annual conference draws hundreds of economic policy modelers from around the world.
Paltsev’s talk, “Energy Scenarios: the Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis,” assessed how new emissions-reduction goals are reflected in the latest projections by the International Energy Agency, the Joint Program, industry analysts and others.
A relatively new dimension in modern energy forecasts, such policy objectives related to climate-change mitigation join traditional factors such as technology development, demographic trends and economic, political and institutional considerations, Paltsev noted. They introduce additional concerns regarding the coverage, timing and stringency of policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants.
He stressed that international decisions such as the Paris Agreement, which articulate the need to mitigate climate change, render energy projections particularly important, as they call for a future energy system based on a radically different fuel mix than what’s currently in place.
“The need for low-emitting technologies will shift the current technology mix, but the exact contribution of particular technologies and the timing of this shift depend on many economic and political variables,” Paltsev observed. “Such uncertainty about the future costs and technologies supports a conclusion that governments should not try to pick the ‘winners,’ rather the policy and investment focus should be on targeting emissions reductions from any energy source.”
The link to the EcoMod 2016 program is available here.
Photo: Joint Program Deputy Director Sergey Paltsev delivers keynote talk at EcoMod 2016 in Lisbon. (Source: EcoMod)