To reduce U.S. economic impacts, EAPS Prof. Kerry Emanuel recommends overhauling the nation’s flood insurance system
Kerry A. Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the evidence suggested climate change would cause the strongest storms to grow even stronger, and to be more frequent. Unresolved questions surround the effect of warming on the weaker storms, but even those will dump more rain, leading over time to increased damage from flooding.
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Finding the strong telltale “signal” of climate change in events is challenging, Dr. Emanuel said, because there are relatively few storms to draw data from. “If we have our numbers right,” he said, “it will be very difficult to see a signal in the actual data for a long time.”
Still, he said, prudent risk assessment calls for expecting these theories to be proved right over time, and to prepare.
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A big part of preparing, Dr. Emanuel said, is overhauling the nation’s flood insurance system, which currently does little to dissuade people from living in hazardous areas.
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“Climate change just makes it worse,” Dr. Emanuel said, and he predicted far greater property damage and rebuilding costs in years to come. The insurance problem, he said, “sets up for a string of Katrinas and Sandys as far as the eye can see.”
Photo: Flooding in Louisiana, 2016 (Source: Dave Malkoff)