If the Paris Agreement leads to an energy transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon technologies, fossil-fuel-producing nations will likely wield far less geopolitical power than they do now. “Instead of focusing on just two major resources, oil and natural gas, low-carbon energy geopolitics may depend on many additional factors, such as access to technology, power lines, rare earth materials, patents, storage and dispatch, not to mention unpredictable government policies,” writes Sergey Paltsev, a senior research scientist at the MIT Energy Initiative and a deputy director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. “Despite uncertainty, there is no question that the balance of power in energy geopolitics is shifting from fossil-fuel owners to countries that are developing low-carbon solutions.”

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Photo: Hydro-power lines near Fontana Dam, North Carolina (Source: Dana Lane)