How our society deals with not knowing, and what we can do to prepare for climate change

Christoph Tries

In this session, we will look at the substantial, yet underestimated role which uncertainty plays in our economy, politics and science. Some examples include: engineering projects to build airports and forecasts for oil and copper prices, policy formulation to limit air pollution and to ensure drug safety, biomedical research and the study of climate change.

We will especially focus on the main sources of uncertainty in climate projections (rate of warming, sea level rise, storm activity, and precipitation changes) and how they translate into uncertainty in climate impacts. Then, we will put these uncertainties into perspective and relate them to other fields which are also heavily influenced by uncertainty. We will close out with some suggestions how to adequately adapt to climate change and how to communicate uncertainty issues to the public, and then open for a discussion with audience members.