Uncertainty in Earth System Components and Implications for Climate Change Risk

Uncertainty is inevitable in a complex process such as climate change, where human activities are influencing the entire Earth system in ways that will continue for centuries. The fact of this uncertainty is used both as justification for waiting to take action and as a reason for urgent measures to limit the human influences. Assessments of uncertainties in the human-climate interaction, and the associated societal risks, are needed to clarify this debate and to inform decision-making and policy formulation. To properly achieve this end requires careful attempts to describe uncertainty in quantitative terms, and to assess the extent to which mitigation policies may be able to reduce the risk of extreme climatic change and other dangerous levels of interference in the Earth system. Even with best efforts, however, the existence of deep structural uncertainty means that existing models may underestimate the chance of extreme changes, or fail to capture processes that could lead to abrupt changes, and the Program seeks to investigate these processes as well.

Key accomplishments and publications in this area of inquiry

Ongoing Projects and Funding

1. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions (DOE)
2. Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research (NSF)
3. Shifts in Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Resolved Atmospheric Changes (NASA)
4. An Integrated Framework for Climate Change Analysis (DOE)
5. Developing an Improved Framework for Analysis of Global Warming (EPRI)
6. Development of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (Industrial and Gift Support)