Improved Estimation of Earth System Responses

A challenging aspect of Earth system research is model evaluation, given that historical data is relatively limited in time and space, subject to considerable measurement error, and that the record captures only one realization of an Earth system subject to natural variability. The Joint Program is applying a variety of statistical approaches to evaluate model performance and update parameters so that models best replicate observations. One of these approaches draws from detection and attribution literature to determine key parameters and their uncertainty — including climate sensitivity, the rate of heat uptake by the ocean, and the response of the system to aerosol and other forcings. Another direction of research draws on inverse methods to improve estimation of flux models, including those related to anthropogenic emissions. Ultimately this work could lead to real-time data assimilation to improve model performance and prediction, and to evaluate and monitor mitigation efforts.

Key accomplishments and publications in this area of inquiry

Ongoing Projects and Funding

1. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions (DOE)
2. Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research (NSF)
3. Shifts in Extreme Precipitation Events Based on Resolved Atmospheric Changes (NASA)
4. Identifying Structures and Impacts of Uncertainty on Climate Change Detection Results (NOAA)
5. An Integrated Framework for Climate Change Analysis (DOE)
6. Developing an Improved Framework for Analysis of Global Warming (EPRI)
7. Development of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (Industrial and Gift Support)